Thursday, April 2, 2009

Have we touched the bottom?

Have we touched the bottom? or there is worse to come. This is the question which is in every body's mind.In the begning of this whole scenario of recession it was being estimated that emerging economies would escape lightly from recession but as it is a fact now that even develoing economies are caught in the net and i think it would be really tough for them to get out if this. 
As foriegn reserves of countries are not in the form of currency notes or in the form of gold it is in the  form of US Treasury Bills and in the past decade every emerging economy like India,China etc have increased there foriegn reserves drastically specially China which has approx. 1 trillon $ invested in US Treasury and US is facing the worst ever crises in the past 70 years.The whole scenario has undergone a drastic change as before International investor considered US tresary bills to be the safest option but now develoing countries are worried about the safety of there investment. 
Since decades US has been running on the concept of low saving and high consumption it is running huge trade and current account deficit. For fulfilling there needs they are using the savings of rest of the world because of this developing countries like China are worst hit as suddenly the consumption has declined in US and China are the biggest Exorter to US .
Matters could get worse if developing countries loose there faith and start selling US treasury bills as if this happens then value of dollor will decline sharly and so will the value of there investment

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